Hi,
1) It is not easy to predict how Singapore will become in the next 5 years. Thus your guess could be as good as mine.
2) If the big picture in Singapore remains unchanged for the next 5 years. The price trend is evident
You may already aware there are going to be 12 projects are expected to launch in 2022.
I'll highlight a few to illustrate my point:
(a) Ang Mo Kio Ave 1, land sales at $1,118 psf ppr. It is expected to launch at least around $2,0xx psf at this land price.
(b) Tanah Merah Kechil Link land sales at $930 psf ppr, expected to launch at least $1,7xx psf.
(c) Tampines St 62 EC land sale at $659 psf ppr, expected to launch at least around $1,2xx psf
(d) Tengah EC land sales at $603 psf ppr, expected to launch at least around $1,3xx psf.
(e) Yishun Ave 9 EC land sales at $576 psf ppr, expected to launch at least around $1,1xx psf.
3) Compare to 2021, OCR is selling at $1,5xx ~ $1,6xx psf. 2022 launch is going to be at least $1,7xx psf and high at $2,0xx psf in OCR.
An increase of ~6.7% on average.
Compare to 2021 EC OCR is selling at $9xx ~ $1,0xx psf. 2022 EC launch is expected to be at least from $1,1xx psf.
An increase of ~10% average. Thus next year; 2022 is a definite up for the property price index.
4) All property price will continue to rise this is for sure until the govt implement more cooling measures.
Cooling measures that most likely to implement are:
(a) LTV - reduce from current 75% to 70%, which is very common in 1st world city.
(b) 2nd mortgage loan current is 45% LTV, this could reduce to if extreme case to 30%, which is also already implemented in some of the 1st world cities.
(c) Further increase of ABSD, is one of the most favorable measures to the govt. Money from government land sales in Singapore is saved under nation reserve, unlike other countries which can be used for their annual budget.
But tax collected can be used in govt annual budget. All govts over the world are spending a lot during this pandemic period. I wouldn't be surprised the Singapore govt increase further on ABSD so that they could even out their balance sheet using this method.
5) Having said all these, Singapore property is still considered a high premium to most people due to its stability, continues to provide wealth protection, and at the same time constant appreciation. We are reading news that lots of billionaires buying Good Class Bungalows.
Those unnamed were grabbing V-on-Shenton, Marina One those high premium condos. And these were published in news, what about those that are not published.
Although overall, foreign buying is still kept within 1~2% of the whole project. But it is evident enough to hint at what is going on in the Singapore property market.
6) Our rental market overall also had increased since 2020 and now is growing strong. It is landlords' market to select the tenant rather than the other way round. On average rental had increased from 2.x% to 3.x% now.
7) It is also because of the pandemic that govt is emphasizing providing more local food supply rather than just rely on overseas. The North region is the chosen region for this.
Therefore it is expected to see more jobs created in the North. It is not difficult to see this Northern Agri-Tech and Food corridor cannot be a delay for another 10~20yrs, this is not some recreation that can wait for another 50yrs to prepare.
In fact, the 1st phase already starts operation on Q2 of 2021.
https://www.enterprisesg.gov.sg/industries/type/agri-tech/industry-profile
8) You can see there are lots of new development is ongoing in the North:
https://www.ura.gov.sg/Corporate/Planning/Master-Plan/Regional-Highlights/North-Region
9) Property prices usually will keep stagnant when there is no new development.
10) However, although all properties will enjoy the growth the gain for each will be different. All because all-in-all it is directly proportional to each property price.
E.g. if a condo unit is worth $1M,
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