SELL, SELL, SELL!

As the UK shivers in sub-zero temperatures, it's hard to imagine that the property stock that lies beneath all the snow and ice, is as hot as it has been for nearly 3 years. Indeed there is an almost palpable sense of excitement welling in the country as a small army of battle-hungry real estate agents await the onslaught of an even larger army of anxious buyers keen to plant their feet firmly on that ever-elusive UK property ladder before it once again soars out of their reach.

Or at least that's what many industry pundits would have us believe. For while confidence is an easy thing to shatter, it's also relatively easy to create, especially when all the good news of property price rises over the last few months fell on such receptive ears. So chances are there will be a noticeable upturn in buyer interest in the next few months, which will quite likely translate into a decent flurry of activity, a ripple or two of panic and, dare I say it, even a return to the stage of our old friend Mr. Gazumper.

But, ironically perhaps, the same thing that is causing this eagerly anticipated upturn in prices, will also ensure it turns out to be as durable as a chocolate teapot. I speak of course, of lack of supply. But unlike the fundamental lack of supply which fuelled the 15-year UK property boom in the first place (the 1 million plus shortage of new, affordable homes for ordinary working people) the current lack of supply is being created by an acute shortage of homeowners willing to accept that their houses simply aren't worth what they were a couple of years ago.

While that situation persists, buyers will find themselves competing for painfully few properties and inadvertently causing the impression that the market is recovering. In truth, as soon as buyers realise this, in about 6 months I reckon, prices will begin to dip again in the UK and continue to do so until something actual and fundamental – like, god forbid, economic recovery – starts a real and sustainable upturn. So, if you've got a property in the UK you've been looking to off-load, do it now, before the false dawn of microcosmic optimism gives way to the inevitable deluge of macro economic reality.